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3aw-3aw double decision

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 30 June 2009, at 9:36 p.m.

In Response To: 3aw-3aw double decision (John O'Hagan)

Everything else being equal, I think the leader in a 78-82 race has around 68% cubeless chances. (emphasis mine)

KC says 0.50 + [8/sqrt(156)]*0.267 = 0.67 so we pretty much agree there, but...

I don't think all else is equal. Blue has 10 extra pips to get home. My adjustment is (extra-outside-pips)/2 added on which makes the pipcount 78-87. (I only do this when there are a few checkers left outside such as here. When both sides have lots of checkers out I've never found need for such adjustment.) That's how I get 23% since D^2/S is just over 1 (and the 4-gap is worse than the 3-gap, although it may not persist).

This obviously isn't a clean position to test my hypothesis since there is contact. White could easily waste some race equity immediately by playing safe, and so could Blue for other reasons -- trying to hang back for the late shot. But of course I'll stay with my D+P until the RO tells me to head back to the drawing board.

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