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BGonline.org Forums
Whatwhat?
Posted By: Rich Munitz In Response To: Whatwhat? (Keene)
Date: Friday, 10 July 2009, at 1:16 a.m.
Well QF suggests that the obvious "lift the blot" play is not so obvious. So lets look deeper.
What happens if white rolls a 6 after the blot has been lifted? Looks like blue is a dog in the position. So does getting hit with a 6 ultimately cost that much? Its worse for sure, and a few gammon losses, but with a quick entry, that second outfield checker could also be a help. So it doesn't seem like a huge swing to get hit. Its simply bad vs worse.
What can go wrong by lifting the blot? Firstly, blue has 4 immediate numbers that are blocked by white's 2-prime and crack the homeboard (and a lost pip on 12), and 66 leaves a shot. 44 does not leave a shot, but it requires busting the 5 point.
What is gained by leaving the blot in place? 5 pips in the race, and that is huge.
I think this is a case where it is correct to play with the strategy of "make your good sequences winners since your bad sequences lose anyway". Winning this game depends on white not rolling a 6 on the first roll. And if white does not roll a 6, there is no harm leaving the blot on the 6-point (this turn), and closer to being able to cash with the cube with a second dance, or with real winning chances and having to win the hard way if white enters on the second shake.
Bar/22*/17 and think small
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