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Definition of luck-to-skill ratio

Posted By: Steve Mellen
Date: Thursday, 6 August 2009, at 8:20 p.m.

In Response To: Definition of luck-to-skill ratio (happyjuggler0)

But if the only time you can really depend on the skill differential determining the outcome is Stick vs. 5 year old kid, that's how you know it's largely a game of luck.

Similarly, the fact that a world-class chess player will beat a player in the 80th percentile virtually every time is how you know it's a game of skill. (I'm told that in Go the gradations are even more severe.) Whereas in bsckgammon, the world-class player beats the 80th percentile guy maybe 60-65% of the time.

I continue to think it is a mistake to believe that in a backgammon match between two evenly matched players, the outcome is 100% dependent on luck. A chess match between two evenly matched players clearly does not come down to luck, it comes down to the variability of skill on any given day. That is also a significant factor in backgammon.

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