| |
BGonline.org Forums
Definition of luck-to-skill ratio
Posted By: Frank Berger In Response To: Definition of luck-to-skill ratio (Steve Mellen)
Date: Friday, 7 August 2009, at 6:02 p.m.
I have to admit that one of my favorite rabulistic joys is to prove that BG has nothing to do with luck, whereas chess contains luck ;))
In chess, the Elo numbers measure the skill differential between the two players. In backgammon, Elo is measuring something different, because the luck factor is already baked in.
IIRC the ELO rating difference gives the probability that one player wins. Don't remember the exact number, but it might be 100 points diff give a 10% edge. Therefore there is probability and therefore luck involved.
I guess one of my own assumptions is that whatever the skill-luck ratio may be in backgammon, it's a feature of the game that remains constant regardless of who is playing.
No, No, No. You agreed already that between players of equal strength it's a tossup in BG. When Falafel plays against my daughter (knowing the rules barely) and wins all the time in a 25-pt match how much *constant* luck can be involved?
Let's talk about chess again for a moment. The reason Garry Kasparov would beat me every single time is obviously that chess is a game of skill. But if I play against a player of exactly my ability, and the results are 50-50, that doesn't mean chess is now a game of luck! You could say, "I was lucky that my opponent didn't play his best," but I think that's really a description of skill rather than luck.
No it's simply luck nothing else. You don't believe me? If one of the 50-50 players lose he was weaker in this game? Let's see. You buy two identical computers and install your favorite chess programm, let's say Shredder and let them play each other with identical settings. When a game isn't draw, which explanation makes more sense: one of the computers was stronger in this game or there is a certain degree of luck involved?
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.