[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

13 off, should I have cubed this?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 7 August 2009, at 8:19 p.m.

In Response To: 13 off, should I have cubed this? (neilkaz)

A little BoE calc says Perry needs ~26% cgwc. I think he's about 29-30% here. So Take.

I think you want to stay on the bar. If that's true then your plus side has low volatility (i.e. a lot of small pluses for you -- vs. a few big minuses). This would argue for waiting.

Three reasons for doubling anyway (ala WDR): A) my estimate of Perry's wins might be high, B) Perry might pass a technical take (if it really is a take) due to oversight on his part, C) in order to extract the max equity Perry will need to redouble at the right time. Perry's a WC player, but even top players can make mistakes. He's probably studied this kind of position, but maybe not.

I'm going with technical N+T and practical D+T. (But I only get half credit at best.)

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.