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BGonline.org Forums
Definition of luck-to-skill ratio
Posted By: Steve Mellen In Response To: Definition of luck-to-skill ratio (Frank Berger)
Date: Friday, 7 August 2009, at 8:38 p.m.
It makes sense to me that just because one plays a game at a particular skill level, one does not always perform at that level on any given day. You can say I was "lucky" to play my opponent on one of his bad days, but what you really mean is that he didn't perform up to his usual skill level. If a computer beats itself on a given day, was it "unlucky" that the game got steered into a position that it doesn't play well from one side or the other? It's like saying I was unlucky to get put in a position where my lack of skill was exposed. It's a skill deficit masquerading as bad luck.
I don't see where probability and luck are interchangeable terms. Probability can measure the odds of an event that is entirely within human control, where we simply lack complete information. Imagine an election, where every voter knows the day beforehand how they are going to vote. The outcome is already predetermined, yet the prediction markets might tell us that one candidate has a 70% chance of winning. I wouldn't say there is luck involved in that outcome.
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