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BGonline.org Forums
Definition of luck-to-skill ratio
Posted By: Rich Munitz In Response To: Definition of luck-to-skill ratio (Steve Mellen)
Date: Friday, 7 August 2009, at 10:26 p.m.
Skill can be highly volatile, and the particular situations you're faced with need have nothing to do with it.
Take a basketball player that averages 50% free throws. Its the same exact shot every time, yet in one game the player may shoot 0% and in the next he may shoot 100%. And any one of those may ultimately decide the game. Bad day or good day, maybe. Or does a better player simply roll a die on each shot that has more 1's and fewer 0's and there's always a chance the random event generator called a human will produce all 1's or all 0's? You think there's no luck involved once the ball loses contact with the human? When the ball hits the rim, bounces into the backboard, hits the rim again and then goes into the basket, I'd say the guy got lucky.
Finally, is there no luck component in skill? Alan Grunwald and I lost a doubles match last week and a large reason was that a situation arose where our opponents could not decide on a take-drop decision. They decided to flip a coin and take or pass according to the result. They took, we lost. I was fairly certain that it was a close ND/T and a large error to pass. I decided there was a good chance of getting a pass and that we should therefore cube. And 50% of the time as it turns out we'd have gotten the pass. Did they get lucky, or make a good decision to use the coin? Did we make an error in doubling or just get unlucky?
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