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Definition of luck-to-skill ratio

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Sunday, 9 August 2009, at 4:33 p.m.

In Response To: Definition of luck-to-skill ratio (Steve Mellen)

I don't see where probability and luck are interchangeable terms. Probability can measure the odds of an event that is entirely within human control, where we simply lack complete information. Imagine an election, where every voter knows the day beforehand how they are going to vote. The outcome is already predetermined, yet the prediction markets might tell us that one candidate has a 70% chance of winning. I wouldn't say there is luck involved in that outcome.

Technically, this is an inaccurate way of speaking. Since all the votes are cast, the probability is not 70% that a certain candidate has won, but either 0% or 100%. Even saying that there is a 70% chance that the predicting procedure will produce X as the winner is false.

What it really means is that if we repeated the predicting procedure numerous times, approximately 70% of the results would name X as the winner.

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