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Cube action in reality?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 22 August 2009, at 6:15 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action in reality? (Coolrey)

The deceptive part of this position (at least for me) is the appearance of the race. It's not that hard to calculate (OtB, and get pretty close) the chances of Blue hitting a shot -- it's a bit less than 20% (I calc'ed 5/26 = 19% but took some shortcuts). BUT, with proper application of EPC you can also deduce that of the 80% non-hits Blue can still win 1/4 of those by simpling outracing White. 20% + (1/4)*80% = 40% wins for Blue.

(I had to refer back to GV and Backgammon Galore and even get some help from GNU-bg's EPC numbers to arrive at the ~25% number, but it's all there for the calculating and I bet Walter would have figured it out OtB. Heck, maybe even Sam. :)

Nice problem and commentary.

Messages In This Thread

• Cube action in reality?
  Coolrey -- Thursday, 20 August 2009, at 10:26 p.m.
  • Cube action in reality?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 20 August 2009, at 11:01 p.m.
  • Cube action in reality?
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 20 August 2009, at 11:03 p.m.
  • An Intermediate's Analysis
    Paul Vianna -- Friday, 21 August 2009, at 12:43 a.m.
  • Cube action in reality?
    David -- Friday, 21 August 2009, at 3:33 p.m.
  • Cube action in reality?
    Coolrey -- Friday, 21 August 2009, at 10:56 p.m.
    • Cube action in reality?
      Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 22 August 2009, at 6:15 p.m.
  • Rollout to shock some of you back to reality
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 22 August 2009, at 1:47 a.m.
    • Rollout to shock some of you back to reality
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 22 August 2009, at 1:51 a.m.