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BGonline.org Forums
GG Cube?
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: GG Cube? (Keene)
Date: Monday, 24 August 2009, at 5:43 p.m.
Any score where trailer's pass leaves match leader 3-away is deceptive.
This decision really hinges on accurate gammon estimates (both sides). My (not so accurate :) estimates are that 35% of Blue's wins will be G's and 30% of White's will be G's. With 70% cube efficiency (when it's in White's hands) that leads to a cubeless game winning chance takepoint of 29% for White. So, if this game were played cubeless can White win 29%?
White has a four point board but it's going to be difficult to improve upon that because of the strippedness. Blue's checkers could be better placed but that is much easier to remedy. I don't think White is as well placed as it first appears (i.e. with four HB points to three and a race lead). I'm thinking low 30's (32-33%) wins for White.
How about Blue's doubling window opening point. Assuming White always recubes and also taking the above gammon fractions then I get a risk of 32% to gain 21% which is close to a 60% window opening point. So my doubling window is 60% < W < 71%. If Blue really does win 67-68% cubeless then this is definitely looking like a cube.
I don't know if I'd trust my calculation and win estimatese enough OtB to cube here, unless I was playing a very strong player. In that case I get the double valued leverage that 1) this might be my best chance to get back in the match if he takes, and 2) s/he might just suffer enough gammonphobia and overconfidence ("well, since I'm the better player...") to pass this.
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