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Re: OLM Wed. May 2nd

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 2 May 2007, at 2:11 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Wed. May 2nd (Stick)

This one is a head scratcher.

For starters, since there's no obvious constructive play, I ask "what good is the checker on our 10-point doing?" and the answer is "not much". So we're going to move it. Next question: "what good is our checker on the 20-point doing?" Quite a bit -- guarding the Scrawny One's outfield and starting a point we would like." So we're not going to go out of our way to move it far. That means this checker won't be our five. 8(2) won't be our play. Thus 10/5 is our five.

We won't play 13/11 for the same reason we lifted our blot on the 10-point. Thus candidates remaining (for the deuce) are 5/3 and 20/18. This is where it gets tough.

5/3 gives SO extra incentive to hit loose on his 5-point. 20/18 makes hitting loose on his 7-point less costly (compared to hitting loose on his 5-point). He gets about equal chances to PoH regardless of our move, although if we knew he were going to PoH we'd rather he do so on his 7-point than his 5-point. Tough decision.

Some other things to consider: 1) Where does the spare on our 5-point (the one we just put there) belong? On the 3-point. 2) What single die doesn't play from our midpoint? "4", so we'd like to have a good four to play next turn, and if we play 20/18 and survive we might not have one.

Not at all sure, but I'm voting to stay on the 20-point:

10/5, 5/3.

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