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MoneyGame 51 to play

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 25 August 2009, at 7:20 p.m.

In Response To: MoneyGame 51 to play (rummer1973)

13/7* leaves 19 returns.

13/8, 15/14 leaves 13 returns.

15/9 leaves 12 returns.

8/7*, 6/1* leaves 13 returns.

13/7* is out because of all the extra return shots.

The two non-hitting plays are pretty close. If we decide the double hit is better then we don't have to decide between those two.

Hitting is quite volatile. If the (double) hitting route goes poorly you get cubed out and it's often not a close decision on the take. OTOH, if you don't hit and opp return hits, not only is he likely to have a cube but it could be a very efficient one. So if the cubeless equity of the safe vs. bold plays here is close then hitting is likely the right course.

One question I like to ask is "am I ahead or behind"? If I'm ahead I don't have to look for ways to make improvements as much as I do when I'm behind. If I make one of the non-hitting plays, I trail in the race by 2 pips, I have a worse homeboard, I'm giving opp 12 or 13 shots. My advantage is that I've escaped (when I don't get hit). Sounds like I'm behind. So I lean toward the bold play.

I don't know how much Jacoby affects this decision but it might. If it were 0-0 in a very long match then I'd have to consider the undoubled gammons if opp enters while hitting and I flunk. Opp will not be doubling from the bar so Jacoby might protect me some in the worst case scenarios. Everything is pointing towards the bold, volatile play.

8/7*, 6/1*.

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