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Put the match on the line? Rollout

Posted By: Dan Pelton
Date: Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 6:38 a.m.

In Response To: Put the match on the line? (Dan Pelton)

The Double/NoDouble decision turned out to be closer than I thought. Original 2-ply analysis said it was ND but that was reversed after the rollout.

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.608	(Money: +0.608)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.872
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.128
3.	No double	+0.812	-0.061
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.804 0.000 0.000 - 0.196 0.000 0.000 +0.608 +0.812 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004 Player DC owns 2-cube 0.804 0.000 0.000 - 0.196 0.000 0.000 +1.772 +0.872 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868130865 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Money Game

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.608
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.000
2.	Double, take	+1.114	+0.114
3.	No double	+0.893	-0.107
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.804 0.000 0.000 - 0.196 0.000 0.000 +0.608 +0.893 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 Player DC owns 2-cube 0.804 0.000 0.000 - 0.196 0.000 0.000 +1.215 +1.114 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868130865 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Put the match on the line?
  Dan Pelton -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 4:18 a.m.
  • Put the match on the line?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 4:53 a.m.
    • Put the match on the line?
      Stick -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 5:47 a.m.
      • Put the match on the line?
        Toppace -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 3:12 p.m.
        • Put the match on the line?
          Dan Pelton -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 3:46 p.m.
          • Put the match on the line?
            Toppace -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 4:52 p.m.
  • Put the match on the line?
    Stein Kulseth -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 10:08 a.m.
  • Put the match on the line?
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 3:21 p.m.
  • Put the match on the line?
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 26 August 2009, at 5:11 p.m.
  • Put the match on the line?
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 12:02 a.m.
  • Put the match on the line? Rollout
    Dan Pelton -- Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 6:38 a.m.