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My favourite probability problem

Posted By: misja
Date: Friday, 28 August 2009, at 3:16 p.m.

In Response To: My favourite probability problem (Stein Kulseth)

Suppose I take the extra $1000. The Predictor, being able to predict me perfectly, would have predicted that, so I would have the million and the $1000.

Now suppose I would not take it. Again the Predictor would have predicted that, so I would have the million, but not the extra $1000 of course.

It seems I can have the extra $1000 for free: I'll take it.

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