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My favourite probability problem

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Friday, 28 August 2009, at 6:02 p.m.

In Response To: My favourite probability problem (joe freedman)

First, there's no indication of the probability that the envelope will contain the check. Is it 50%?

The probability that the envelope contains the check depends on what the predictor's prediction was. However it either almost always will or almost always will not, so say either above 99% or less than 1%.

Also, there's no indication that choosing to accept the cash would preclude you from also taking the envelope.

Correct, you can take both.

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