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My favourite probability problem

Posted By: playBunny
Date: Friday, 28 August 2009, at 7:12 p.m.

In Response To: My favourite probability problem (Stein Kulseth)

The Predictor lets you know that it put the $1,000,000 in the envelope if and only if it predicted that you would plainly turn down the offer

According to the catch, the Predictor will only pay out the $M if it predicts that you turn down the $1000.

To get the $M + $1000 it must be predicted that you won't accept and then you do accept. But, as you will be correctly predicted, the envelope would be empty.

Therefore you must make certain of the $M by predictably turning down the $1000.

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