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My favourite probability problem

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Friday, 28 August 2009, at 7:29 p.m.

In Response To: My favourite probability problem (Stein Kulseth)

There is no reason why a person offered a free $1000 with no strings attached would turn down the offer.

The predictor cannot by the rules attempt to influence that decision.

So it seems logical that the predictor must have actually predicted that the person would accept the $1000 and has therefore left the envelope empty. That leaves the predictor both truthful and free from conflict of interest.

So the person should take the $1000 and expect the envelope to be empty.

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