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My favourite probability problem

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Friday, 28 August 2009, at 7:31 p.m.

In Response To: My favourite probability problem (Matt Cohn-Geier)

It is perfectly acceptable to talk of the probability of an event that already occurred.

Joe was asking about the probability of the envelope containing the million dollars and it definitely is important. Your non answer dodged the question. In Joe's case suppose that a fair coin was tossed and that if landed heads 40 times in a row that then the envelope would be left empty. At least one head and then the 1Million is put into it. That changes things doesn't it? Also would you still say it would be less than 1%?

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