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My favourite probability problem

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Friday, 28 August 2009, at 8:04 p.m.

In Response To: My favourite probability problem (Matt Cohn-Geier)

"The point here is that what the envelope contains depends on what the predictor thinks you will do. "

Not necessarily. The prediction was made. The envelope was loaded according to a coin flip or something. Then the predictor makes up a logical statement that relates the outcome of the two events that have already occurred. Nothing says that the two event outcomes were dependent on one another. Had the coin flip to choose the envelope contents landed tails instead of heads, the predictor would simply have constructed a different statement to reflect the opposite outcome.

However, the probability is irrelevant. Always take the cash whatever the predictor says.

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