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My favourite probability problem

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Friday, 28 August 2009, at 8:11 p.m.

In Response To: My favourite probability problem (Rich Munitz)

The prediction was made. The envelope was loaded according to a coin flip or something. Then the predictor makes up a logical statement that relates the outcome of the two events that have already occurred. Nothing says that the two event outcomes were dependent on one another. Had the coin flip to choose the envelope contents landed tails instead of heads, the predictor would simply have constructed a different statement to reflect the opposite outcome.

I don't understand this. The envelope's contents depend on the predictor's prediction (by stipulation). The predictor's prediction depends on what he thinks you will do (by stipulation). Therefore the envelope's contents depends on what the predictor thinks you will do.

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