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My favourite probability problem

Posted By: joe freedman
Date: Friday, 28 August 2009, at 9:25 p.m.

In Response To: My favourite probability problem (Matt Cohn-Geier)

This strays into philosophy, but I agree with Bob -- it is meaningful to talk about the probability of an event that has already occurred, from the perspective of those that don't know the result. Of course, it either happened or it didn't, but the bettors don't know that. One can also say that there's no such thing as probability of anything, as an event is either going to happen or it won't.

If I write down a random number from 1-10, and Gambler A lays even money to Hustler B (neither of whom know the number) that it will be 1-4, Hustler B has a positive equity, even if the number turns out to be 4. If the same bet were repeated thousands of times, Hustler B would make money, based on the 60% probability that he has accurately "predicted" an event that has already occurred.

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