[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

My favourite probability problem

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Friday, 28 August 2009, at 9:35 p.m.

In Response To: My favourite probability problem (joe freedman)

Of course, and I agree, but I think when we talk about the probability of an event that already occurred we are speaking a bit inexactly. That is, as if it had yet to occur, given our limited knowledge. Whether a chosen number is actually 1-4 or 6-10 has either 0 or 1 probability, either it is or it isn't.

In this case after the predictor makes his prediction (which could have happened a split second ago, a week ago, a year ago) nothing will change the result. The probability that the envelope contains $1m was based on his prediction at the time, which could have been 0%, 100%, or anything in between--all we know is that it was highly accurate based on what he predicted you would do.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.