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My favourite probability problem

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Friday, 28 August 2009, at 10:22 p.m.

In Response To: My favourite probability problem (Keene)

Therefore for your assumptions, the envelope is essentially undetermined, as you have not made a logical conclusion as to your actions yet. As soon as you make your logical conclusions about how to proceed, the envelope is no longer undetermined.

The envelope is there. It either contains $1m or it doesn't. How can it be undetermined?

After the predictor makes his prediction, but before you know anything about the problem or conditions, he shows me the envelope and shows me whether it contains $1M or nothing. I do not have any idea how you will act. I do know how much is in the envelope. It will not change regardless of what you do. However much he showed me will still be in the envelope after you act.

Is there an actual answer to this theoretical problem?

The correct answer is yes or no.

Can I meet this Predictor guy?

No, but I think he will start posting here soon.

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