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My favourite probability problem

Posted By: playBunny
Date: Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 12:15 a.m.

In Response To: My favourite probability problem (joe freedman)

Bunny, I'm afraid your logic is flawed. Something to do with post hoc does not mean propter hoc, or something like that.

Maybe, you could also say that it's an only apparent ability to affect the past, not an actual one. Whatever it is, it's embodied in the fact that the Predictor does predict with a given degree of success. That's part of the information that you've been given. How are you going to use it?

If the Predictor is less than 100%, then you can take the cash and still have a chance of getting the check.

So your challenge now is quantify it. What's the relationship between the accuracy and your chance of getting rich?

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