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My favourite probability problem

Posted By: playBunny
Date: Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 12:19 a.m.

In Response To: My favourite probability problem (Rich Munitz)

Who says that the Predictor's accuracy remains near 100% when he confuses you with references to his own predictions?

Who says the Predictor gets confused?

My conclusion is that his integrity is stated as impeachable. His prediction accuracy stated as awesome, but fallible. This is the weakest link.

Same question as to Joe. Can you quantify the effect of that weakness?

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