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My favourite probability problem

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 10:39 a.m.

In Response To: My favourite probability problem (joe freedman)

Then what is your EV of taking the $1k vs. your EV of not taking the $1K? I argue that it is about $1K vs. $1M. If you think it is substantially different then you should take me up on my bet since after all the predictor has acted but you haven't, and I am offering substantial odds.

Messages In This Thread

• My favourite probability problem
  Stein Kulseth -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 8:55 a.m.
  • My favourite probability problem
    poseidon -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 1:10 p.m.
    • My favourite probability problem
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 6:13 p.m.
      • My favourite probability problem
        poseidon -- Sunday, 30 August 2009, at 11:06 a.m.
  • My favourite probability problem
    joe freedman -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 2:56 p.m.
    • My favourite probability problem
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 6:02 p.m.
      • My favourite probability problem
        Bob Koca -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 6:11 p.m.
        • My favourite probability problem
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 6:16 p.m.
          • My favourite probability problem
            Bob Koca -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 7:31 p.m.
            • My favourite probability problem
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 7:39 p.m.
              • My favourite probability problem
                Rich Munitz -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 8:04 p.m.
                • My favourite probability problem
                  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 8:11 p.m.
              • My favourite probability problem
                joe freedman -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 9:25 p.m.
                • My favourite probability problem
                  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 9:35 p.m.
                  • My favourite probability problem
                    Bob Koca -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 11:25 p.m.
                    • Purview
                      joe freedman -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 11:33 p.m.
                      • Purrrrrview
                        Steve Mellen -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 2:05 a.m.
                    • My favourite probability problem
                      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 12:17 a.m.
      • My favourite probability problem
        joe freedman -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 7:24 p.m.
  • My favourite probability problem
    misja -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 3:16 p.m.
  • My favourite probability problem
    Bob Koca -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 4:56 p.m.
  • My favourite probability problem
    playBunny -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 7:12 p.m.
    • My favourite probability problem
      joe freedman -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 7:27 p.m.
      • My favourite probability problem
        playBunny -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 11:04 p.m.
        • My favourite probability problem
          Bob Koca -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 11:20 p.m.
          • My favourite probability problem
            joe freedman -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 11:30 p.m.
          • My favourite probability problem
            playBunny -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 11:49 p.m.
          • My favourite probability problem
            Sam Pottle -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 3:45 p.m.
        • My favourite probability problem
          joe freedman -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 11:28 p.m.
          • My favourite probability problem
            playBunny -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 11:45 p.m.
            • My favourite probability problem
              joe freedman -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 11:58 p.m.
              • My favourite probability problem
                playBunny -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 12:15 a.m.
                • My favourite probability problem
                  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 2:37 a.m.
                  • My favourite probability problem
                    playBunny -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 7:09 p.m.
                    • My favourite probability problem
                      joe freedman -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 10:22 p.m.
                      • My favourite probability problem
                        playBunny -- Sunday, 30 August 2009, at 1:44 a.m.
                        • My favourite probability problem
                          joe freedman -- Sunday, 30 August 2009, at 5:11 a.m.
                          • My favourite probability problem
                            playBunny -- Sunday, 30 August 2009, at 9:07 p.m.
                            • My favourite probability problem
                              joe freedman -- Monday, 31 August 2009, at 6:33 p.m.
                      • My favourite probability problem
                        Bob Koca -- Sunday, 30 August 2009, at 1:52 a.m.
                    • My favourite probability problem
                      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 10:32 p.m.
  • My favourite probability problem
    Rich Munitz -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 7:29 p.m.
    • My favourite probability problem
      Tom Keith -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 8:32 p.m.
      • My favourite probability problem
        joe freedman -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 9:15 p.m.
        • My favourite probability problem
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 9:39 p.m.
          • My favourite probability problem
            joe freedman -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 9:43 p.m.
            • My favourite probability problem
              Bob Koca -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 11:21 p.m.
              • My favourite probability problem
                joe freedman -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 11:31 p.m.
            • My favourite probability problem
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 12:15 a.m.
              • My favourite probability problem
                joe freedman -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 12:55 a.m.
                • My favourite probability problem
                  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 2:37 a.m.
                  • My favourite probability problem
                    joe freedman -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 3:16 a.m.
                    • My favourite probability problem
                      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 10:39 a.m.
                      • My favourite probability problem
                        joe freedman -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 12:30 p.m.
                        • My favourite probability problem
                          playBunny -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 7:16 p.m.
    • My favourite probability problem
      playBunny -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 11:04 p.m.
      • My favourite probability problem
        Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 12:07 a.m.
        • My favourite probability problem
          playBunny -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 12:19 a.m.
  • My favourite probability problem
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 8:06 p.m.
  • My favourite probability problem
    Keene -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 8:35 p.m.
    • My favourite probability problem
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 9:45 p.m.
      • My favourite probability problem
        Keene -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 10:07 p.m.
        • My favourite probability problem
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 28 August 2009, at 10:22 p.m.
          • My favourite probability problem
            Jake Jacobs -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 3:57 a.m.
            • My favourite probability problem
              Sam Pottle -- Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 3:34 p.m.