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My favourite probability problem

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 10:32 p.m.

In Response To: My favourite probability problem (playBunny)

I don't understand.

Why is it important to exactly quantify how often the predictor is wrong?

I don't object to quantifying how often he is wrong, though, so let's assume we do quantify how often the predictor is wrong: 1/10^40 of the time. What's wrong with that? How can you use that piece of information, and why is it better than "nearly certain"?

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