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My favourite probability problem

Posted By: poseidon
Date: Sunday, 30 August 2009, at 11:06 a.m.

In Response To: My favourite probability problem (Matt Cohn-Geier)

"That is, if you take the $1,000, you are always $1,000 better off no matter what the predictor's prediction was."

By saying "no matter what the predictor's prediction was, we actually ingnore the fact that "at least well above 99% success rate"

Although I don't think this rational is wrong, I think it doesn't fully utilize the information we have.

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