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My favourite probability problem

Posted By: playBunny
Date: Sunday, 30 August 2009, at 9:07 p.m.

In Response To: My favourite probability problem (joe freedman)

I prefer to think of it as hypothetical rather than magic. :-)

It's very easy to take this from the hypothetical realm of a near perfect predictor to something much more plausible - a fallible but better than chance predictor. A predictor that has, say, a 57% success rate at predicting who will take the $1000 and a 61% success rate at predicting the droppers. The predictor makes its predictions based on a set of questionnaires filled out the person, matched against those of previous players and their decisions. The predictor might be a computer or a group of people or both.

Given that, would you still maintain that there's magic involved, and therefore taking the $1000 is always and only the way to go, or does it now become a matter of science a therefore a question of carefully working out what your best option is?

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