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Plethorized

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Wednesday, 9 September 2009, at 5:31 a.m.

In Response To: Plethorized (Timothy Chow)

You look for nice human concepts to give you the correct answer here. I must disappoint you. This will be a technical decision and one where the bots ability to look at the dice combinations over the next few rolls will give better visibility into what's right than anything else.

But as a human, it helps to have a game plan. Then the question is how to best execute it. The objective here is to escape the back checker, avoid getting hit and turn the cube. It is often useful to think of reaching a position where you can give a strong cube as if you have won the game and forget about the work you might need to do after that. While such an approach varies in its accuracy depending upon cube efficiency, it can often help you to focus on what you need to accomplish.

3 plays: 7 pt; 9 pt; 13/10 13/12 (I reject the hit. It does not follow the game plan.)

While white has a bit of a mess now in the homeboard, it is reasonable to expect some cleanup to occur, and it will not be good to get hit next turn. Since the priority next roll will be to run the rear blot and not get hit, it seems that it is bad to have any more blots as targets and it is good to have landing spots in reach of the rear checker.

If blue makes the 7 pt, rolls that safety next turn are 26,35,44 (5). And 25,34 (4) leave an indirect on the 12 pt exposed to 6 numbers. Call it 7 safe escapes. However, the extra blot remains a liability in all other sequences.

If blue makes the 9 pt, rolls that safety next turn are 25,34,56 (6). And 26 35 and 44 (5) leave an indirect on the 12 pt exposed to 5 numbers. Call it 8.5 safe escapes.

If blue makes the 10 and 12 pts, rolls that safety next turn are 26 35 44 46 55 (8). And 25, 34 (4) leaves an indirect on the 13 pt exposed to 6 numbers. Call it 10 safe escapes.

13/10 13/12 creates the best chance of escape for the back checker without the liability of the extra blot. It is my choice.

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