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Oops...cube in the wrong position

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Friday, 11 September 2009, at 11:50 p.m.

In Response To: Oops...cube in the wrong position (Timothy Chow)

Trice counts can help here. Suppose blue runs. White's count is 3.5 x 13 checkers + 12 for straggler = 52.5 Blue has pipcount of 56 plus wastage. Finding the wastage is the hard part. I know that 12 checker closeout plus spares on 1 , 2, and 3 wastes almost 14. This looks a little worse, I will guess 14.5 giving a Trice count of 70.5.

Now I will use Kleinmann's D^2/S theory. White has a low variance position which helps him as the leader and I think that crediting one extra pip is about right. Blue also has a lower variance position than the formulas was developed for. I think another pip is called for. Including 4 pips for being on roll that gives us a difference of 24. 24^2 = 576. For the S I will use pipcount of 63 for blue and 44 for white. The formula was developed for long races and the pipcounts and not Trice counts were used and a 44 pip "normal" race gives about 52.5 Trice count. 576/(44+63) is a little more than 5. From the table translating d^2/S to win chance one obtains about 5% chance for blue after running with the 43.

http://www.bkgm.com/rgb/rgb.cgi?view+500 from Chuck Bower has a summary of the Kleinmann method. Backgammon Boot Camp has more on the Trice count (called effective pipcount there).

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