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MET update

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 22 September 2009, at 3:59 p.m.

In Response To: MET update (David Rockwell)

At the moment our plans are to go out to 15 points. We are using GNU Supremo as this is how David started the project.

Compared to g11 we do see slightly more chances for the trailer to come back at most scores. This is due to a slightly higher gammon rate with 2 ply play vs 0-ply play. We are also rolling out each score almost 40,000 times to cut down the statistical varience somewhat from g11.

I expect we'll be finished sometime in late fall.

I am also doing my own checking on -2-1C with XG rollouts of each of the 15 opening rolls for both sides. All ready I am convinced that the trailer's chances will be slightly above 32% as 2 ply GNU rollouts show. Once again I stress that it is time to abandon any METs based on 20% overall G chances (-2-1C= 30%) noting that 20% was just an offhand comment by Magriel about 3 decades ago.

Messages In This Thread

• MET update
  David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 22 September 2009, at 3:40 p.m.
  • MET update
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 22 September 2009, at 3:59 p.m.
    • Gammon %
      Frankie D -- Wednesday, 23 September 2009, at 12:00 a.m.
      • Gammon %
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 23 September 2009, at 1:07 a.m.
        • Gammon %
          Stein Kulseth -- Wednesday, 23 September 2009, at 7:50 a.m.
          • Gammon %
            Havard Raddum -- Wednesday, 23 September 2009, at 10:31 a.m.
          • Gammon %
            Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 23 September 2009, at 12:10 p.m.
          • Gammon %
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 23 September 2009, at 1:48 p.m.
          • Gammon %
            David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 23 September 2009, at 1:55 p.m.
  • MET update
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 22 September 2009, at 4:29 p.m.
    • MET update
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 22 September 2009, at 5:04 p.m.
  • MET update
    Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 22 September 2009, at 4:33 p.m.
    • MET update
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 22 September 2009, at 4:55 p.m.
      • MET update
        NJ -- Wednesday, 23 September 2009, at 11:15 a.m.
        • MET update
          Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 23 September 2009, at 1:20 p.m.
          • MET update
            NJ -- Wednesday, 23 September 2009, at 4:14 p.m.
          • Link doesn't work on any of the 3 comps I tried *NM*
            neilkaz -- Wednesday, 23 September 2009, at 5:29 p.m.
            • did you try right-click -> save target as... ? *NM*
              Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 23 September 2009, at 7:34 p.m.
              • TY that saved it,,but how do I look at it to compare to g11 and other MET's?
                neilkaz -- Wednesday, 23 September 2009, at 7:39 p.m.
                • TY that saved it,,but how do I look at it to compare to g11 and other MET's?
                  Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 23 September 2009, at 8:01 p.m.
                  • Thx *NM*
                    neilkaz -- Thursday, 24 September 2009, at 12:19 a.m.
    • MET update
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 22 September 2009, at 7:10 p.m.
  • MET update
    NJ -- Wednesday, 23 September 2009, at 8:17 a.m.
    • MET update
      Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 23 September 2009, at 8:30 a.m.
      • MET update
        NJ -- Wednesday, 23 September 2009, at 11:03 a.m.