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Open Player Survey Conclusion

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Thursday, 1 October 2009, at 4:35 p.m.

In Response To: Open Player Survey Conclusion (Chuck Bower)

I am working on an approach to try to make the cube decisions easier for intermediates, and even advanced players. We know that the only definitive way to determine cube action is to actually estimate wins, losses and gammons, apply POG, and check that against the doubling window and take points, considering market losers in the process.

We all know that is extremely difficult and often imprecise over the board, even for the best players. So in practically, in most situations, we are just estimating and guessing.

Wouldn't it be helpful if we could assign a "value" to each of our opinions in each area and end up with a formula as to whether something is a double or not, or a take or drop?

What if, in order to double, you had to be above 0. And what if you estimated that you win a lot of games...say, 70 percent, and that's worth 1 points. And maybe every 5 games above that is worth another point. And what if winning 15 percent gammons is worth 1 point, and every 5 percent is worth another 1. And if gammons lost over 15 is a -1...and you have to net =1 to be a bare double and -1 to be a bare take? Now, instead of trying to estimate the number of wins, let's say that "lots of wins" is worth 2 points, and "lots of gammons" is worth 2 points, and being a favorite is worth 1 point, and winning some gammons is worth 1 point, etc. etc.

Of course, the numbers above are just hypothetical and need to be tested, and they probably have to be adjusted for the take points and POG, and you have to adjust for market losers....but it seems like this might be an approach that can get you to an estimate faster and easier than trying to actually come up with definitive numbers, and it is better than not coming up with any values at all for these variables.

If nothing else, it forces players to at least look at these factors before making their decision, even if the relative values applied are off.

If anyone out there sees potential value to this approach, and has any suggestions as to how to assign values, I think it would be an interesting exercise to try to come up with something, test it with the bots, and create a table for using this method....I'd love some help doing this.

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