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XBG 3ply RO: 53P21: Slot better as Split

Posted By: Andreas
Date: Thursday, 1 October 2009, at 6:06 p.m.

In Response To: corrected settings: much closer... (Stick)

Below my XBG 3 Ply RO as suggested.

The confidence intervalls overlap only very slightly - so the result is probably already significant.

Thanks to all-very interesting that slotting with keeping the ace anchor is advantageous in certain postions with an additional deep homeboard point of the opponent at GS despite the fact that making an advanced anchor is also urgent.

Does anybody know a formula how to calculate the significance level, the "p-value"- which should be <0,05 for 95% significance - from the size and positions of the confidence intervalls and the number of rollouts done?

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159

2 point match Crawford

pip: 167 score: 1 is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d--b-B-:0:0:1:21:1:0:1:2:10

to play 21

1.	Rollout1	13/11 6/5	eq: -0,429
	Player: Opponent: 45,68% (G:13,83% B:1,94%) 54,32% (G:17,22% B:4,12%) Conf: ± 0,011 (-0,440...-0,418) Duration: 3 hours 18 minutes 54 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/23 13/11	eq: -0,446 (-0,016)
	Player: Opponent: 45,60% (G:13,78% B:1,88%) 54,40% (G:17,96% B:2,10%) Conf: ± 0,010 (-0,456...-0,436) Duration: 3 hours 06 minutes 16 seconds
3.	3 ply	24/21	eq: -0,437 (-0,007)
	Player: Opponent: 45,59% (G:11,04% B:0,55%) 54,41% (G:17,45% B:0,73%)
4.	3 ply	13/10	eq: -0,437 (-0,008)
	Player: Opponent: 44,78% (G:11,86% B:0,57%) 55,22% (G:16,64% B:0,98%)
5.	2 ply	24/23 8/6	eq: -0,530 (-0,100)
	Player: Opponent: 42,85% (G:10,89% B:0,51%) 57,15% (G:19,35% B:0,86%)
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. First 1 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply Remaining moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 1 ply

Version: 1.03, MET: eXtremeGammon

Messages In This Thread

• 53P21$@GS?
  Andreas -- Wednesday, 30 September 2009, at 5:40 p.m.
  • 53P21$@GS?
    Michael Depreli -- Wednesday, 30 September 2009, at 5:51 p.m.
    • 53P21$@GS?
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 30 September 2009, at 6:27 p.m.
      • 53P21$@GS?
        Andreas -- Wednesday, 30 September 2009, at 6:51 p.m.
        • No - the problem isn't the settings
          David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 30 September 2009, at 7:45 p.m.
  • corrected settings: much closer...
    Andreas -- Thursday, 1 October 2009, at 5:38 a.m.
    • corrected settings: much closer...
      Stick -- Thursday, 1 October 2009, at 1:09 p.m.
      • XBG 3ply RO: 53P21: Slot better as Split
        Andreas -- Thursday, 1 October 2009, at 6:06 p.m.
        • XBG 3ply RO: 53P21: Slot better as Split
          W Womack -- Friday, 2 October 2009, at 1:17 a.m.
          • XBG 3ply RO: 53P21: Slot better as Split
            Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 2 October 2009, at 7:16 a.m.
          • XBG 3ply RO: 53P21: Slot better as Split
            Andreas -- Saturday, 3 October 2009, at 12:39 a.m.
        • XBG 3ply RO: 53P21: Slot better as Split
          neilkaz -- Friday, 2 October 2009, at 1:55 a.m.
          • XBG 3ply RO: 53P21: Slot better as Split
            Chuck Bower -- Friday, 2 October 2009, at 4:33 p.m.
    • corrected settings: much closer...
      David Rockwell -- Thursday, 1 October 2009, at 3:12 p.m.
  • Link to article please ! Can't find. *NM*
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 1 October 2009, at 4:51 p.m.
    • Link
      David Rockwell -- Thursday, 1 October 2009, at 5:46 p.m.
    • Link to article please ! Can't find.
      Andreas -- Thursday, 1 October 2009, at 5:48 p.m.