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Open Player Survey Conclusion

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 1 October 2009, at 10:14 p.m.

In Response To: Open Player Survey Conclusion (Phil Simborg)

What if, in order to double, you had to be above 0. And what if you estimated that you win a lot of games...say, 70 percent, and that's worth 1 points. And maybe every 5 games above that is worth another point. And what if winning 15 percent gammons is worth 1 point, and every 5 percent is worth another 1. And if gammons lost over 15 is a -1...and you have to net =1 to be a bare double and -1 to be a bare take? Now, instead of trying to estimate the number of wins, let's say that "lots of wins" is worth 2 points, and "lots of gammons" is worth 2 points, and being a favorite is worth 1 point, and winning some gammons is worth 1 point, etc. etc

Phil, I don't think this approach is useful, especially not for novice players. It's basically one of the things wrong with Bell's book, as I recall from reading it several years ago -- making you memorize yet another formula to plug imprecise guesstimations into. For what purpose and at what mental cost? To double or not to double, that is the question ... and to answer it, the novice is supposed to remember that 70 percent = 1 points, every 5 games above that is worth = 1 point, winning 15 percent gammons = 1 point, every 5 percent = 1, gammons lost over 15 = -1, etc. .... ? I think not.

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