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FIBS tourney 13 October 2009 #1

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 14 October 2009, at 4:49 p.m.

In Response To: FIBS tourney 13 October 2009 #1 (Jason Lee)

The appropriate ME's for the take are: -7,-5 @ 37%, -7,-1C @ 9%. Ignoring gammons, pass for 37%, take and win for the match, take and lose for 9%. Blue could win some G's here so I'll adjust the take and lose ME to 7%. Risk 37-7 of the available 91-7 gives a takepoint of 30/84 = 5/14 = 35+%.

Obviously Blue's main goal is to get over the 5-prime. He'll still be trapped 48% of the time after two rolls and close to 34% of the time after three rolls. Meanwhile White should have entered by then, so it looks like a (easy?) Take.

For the redouble, (now -9,-3 score @16% MWC is relevent) White risks 16 when he doubles and loses to gain (63-91) = 28 when he doubles and wins, so the doubling window opens at 16/(16+28) = 4/11 or just over 36%. Surely Blue wins considerably more than this. And Blue will lose his market significantly (IMO) with escape+miss sequence.

The main value of not doubling is that Blue will have a lot of efficient cubes next turn, but I don't see that as being the case. As a bonus, White could take a very dim view of his/her chances and pass.

R+T.

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