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FIBS tourney 13 October 2009 #1

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Thursday, 15 October 2009, at 1:33 a.m.

In Response To: FIBS tourney 13 October 2009 #1 (Jason Lee)

If you spin the cube here, what's his takepoint? Pass for -7 -5 or 37%, take & win for 100%, take and lose for 9%. Small gammon factor on an 8 cube.

Risk is 37-9 = 28. Gain is 100 - 37 = 63. 28 / 91 = close to 28/90 = about 31-32%. Call it 31.5% (probably a more accurate way to figure this but this'd be closeish).

Are you close to his takepoint? Well, if you roll a 6 you are in good shape. If you don't roll a 6 you have a ton of problems and a few odd numbers don't cover (55 53). However you will almost always at least either escape or cover. Escaping (and not getting hit back) loses the market by a mile but can still be played for a G.

Looks to me like you are at best a 60-40 fav and maybe not even even money but at this score you are really looking for any excuse at all to rewhip. A G on a 4 cube would be nice but it is unlikely. By recubing you ensure that this game will be played for 8 points.

I'd consider who I was playing but probably recube here. Easy take of course as you are nowhere near 70%.

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