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BGonline.org Forums
BGOnline Players
Posted By: Bob Koca In Response To: BGOnline Players (Christian Munk-Christensen)
Date: Thursday, 15 October 2009, at 2:02 p.m.
You missed Stick's point. The rules of the contest sometimes encourage moves that one knows are wrong. You seem to want to see who is best at imitating a bot instead of who is better at winning backgammon matches.
There are many other problems with the ER comparison approach. For example is it also a mark of a strong player to know not to double optional doubles such as early in a game at 3 away 1 away post crawford? What if a super backgame is reached in which the bot is inept? No amount of rollout challenges could help.
Looking at variance reduced results reduces the inherent randomness in just looking at wins and losses and avoids the problems with the ER comparison approach. Since the reduction is independent of any moves made there is never any need to worry about "I know this play is wrong but I think the bot likes it so I will make it anyway" or "I will delay my optional double to increase my denominator" or "I know play A is better theroetically but not practically against this opponent, but since it is ER match I should make it anyways". You would just make the plays that you think give the best chance to win the match.
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