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54 @ DMP

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 20 October 2009, at 4:17 p.m.

In Response To: 54 @ DMP (Max Urban)

Ahead in the race, I narrow this down to two choices:

18/9: leaving 12 shots at the 3-point blot but costing 22 pips when hit;

18/14, 8/3: leaving 18 shots at the 14-point blot but costing 11 pips when hit.

Without doing the full arithmetic one sees that the breakeven pip loss would require the blot on the 14-point (half as costly when hit) to be hit twice as often (12 X 2 = 24 times) compared to the 12 shots at the 2-point. So from this accounting alone it's better to leave 18 shots on the 14-point.

What about other factors? The blot on the 3-point will likely still need to be covered next turn, which is probable but not a slam dunk. The blot on the 14-point will either be covered with 6-4 or need to run to safety, again likely but not guaranteed. Both are performed with 3 of 6 (individual) dice so it's pretty close to breakeven there.

The 3-point is good for other things than just safety.

If White hits on the 14-point that hitting checker simultanously becomes a new builder (at least in the interim) although with the White already owning the 5-point its builder value is retarded. Also after 18/9 the checker distribution is better and will particularly be revealed if White misses and Blue can cover with a 3 (from the 6-point). IMO these secondary considerations don't offset the increased pip loss when White hits on the 3-point.

Summary: 18/14, 8/3.

Messages In This Thread

• 54 @ DMP
  Max Urban -- Monday, 19 October 2009, at 11:53 a.m.
  • 54 @ DMP
    Barry Silliman -- Monday, 19 October 2009, at 12:43 p.m.
    • 54 @ DMP
      John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 20 October 2009, at 3:22 a.m.
  • 54 @ DMP
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 19 October 2009, at 2:21 p.m.
  • 54 @ DMP
    neilkaz -- Monday, 19 October 2009, at 3:13 p.m.
  • 54 @ DMP
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 20 October 2009, at 4:17 p.m.