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BGonline.org Forums
Torsdag night. Cube action and action play
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Torsdag night. Cube action and action play (Daniel Murphy)
Date: Friday, 23 October 2009, at 1:47 p.m.
I don't have time at the moment to do any MET calcs. I don't think they are needed in this situation (but could well be wrong...) Note that if the cube comes back to 4 Blue will not have many recube chances as he won't want to put the match on the line by sending it back to 8 very often. That tells me this Blue should be less likely to double here than at $-play (equivalent). Let's analyze as a money game and only adjust if necessary (which it won't be, if I'm close to being right on the $-game decisions).
Does White have a take? Yes. This is close enough to the 20-point ref positions in Kit's book to see that White has a $-take. Those ref pos(es) have checkers on the midpoint and no 9-point. 9-point is a plus but the midpoint moved back to the 15-point? Considerably worse for Blue. As is detailed there, when the race is so disparate, trailer has more timing and thus his wins come from future hitting chances.
Does Blue have a cube? Where are the market losers? 4-4, 5-5, 6-6, plus any big numbers where Blue offers White a shot and White misses. But will Blue be volunteering shots when he doesn't have to? I don't think so. Even when Blue volunteers and White misses there are still GWC's remaining for White so the cube has value (as in forcing White to pass on those chances).
ND+T for $-play, so also (more so?) at this score.
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