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BGonline.org Forums
Colony Cup 3
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Colony Cup 3 (Max Urban)
Date: Wednesday, 28 October 2009, at 4:51 p.m.
I would keep the 21-point here as it aims at White's 15-point. And I don't like taking builders past the 5-point on the homeside. So that means I'm giving up the 22-point anchor. The question for me is: "How frisky should I be with those checkers on the 22-point?" I have three choices: leave one on the 22-point; leave one on the 17-point; don't leave any within shot range.
22/7, 13/8 gives the best immediate builder distribution for making the 5-point. You're likely to be running the straggler next time if you roll a die which doesn't make the 5-point (and maybe even if you do). Thus considerably more than half the time you won't be making the 5-point next turn, anyway.
I can't find a roll where the extra coverage on White's side helps for hitting shots the coming turn. It might take away some of White's options but even there it's not obvious. (Staying on the 17-point does help quite a bit if White rolls 2-2.)
Given the cube location (and score), staying on the 22-point may not help much. Once White clears the 10-point I doubt Blue will have a take, regardless of the coverage of White's homeboard. Thus all its value comes while White still owns the 10-point. Downside, of course, are the POH and P&P plays by White, which might lead to gammons but more likely just take away any of Blue winning chances when White doubles.
Maybe I'm chasing windmills, but I think I'll go with 22/17, 22/7 which puts three builders in range of the 5-point. (Note the rolls which won't escape the checker on the 17-point next time will make the 5-point.) The swing on 2-2 seems like a nice bonus for little risk.
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