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BGonline.org Forums
A Puzzle that Reall matters
Posted By: Joe Russell In Response To: A Puzzle that Reall matters (Phil Simborg)
Date: Monday, 2 November 2009, at 8:02 a.m.
It is often correct to take a pass to get the box if you are the best player in the game. How deep a pass depends on whether you are consulting and the composition of the other players in the chouette. It can even be right when there are two strong players in the chouette. I often play in the same non-consulting chouette with Steve Sax. When one of us is the captain and the other the box and the winner of the game will be rewarded with a line of weaker players coming up, it is not only right for us to take deeply to get the box but also to prevent the other from getting the box. It is also right for us to double each other very late in the same situation to get a pass and put the other at the bottom of the rotation.
Take an example of a very weak player next in line in the rotation where we, as the box against him, would have positive equity of .15 points against each player on the crew. Assume Steve, as the box against five players, doubles me and I, as captain, have a choice to take a cube that I only win 20%, including cube ownership. If I pass I lose one point. If I take my negative equity is 1.2 points. Can it be worth the extra .2 points to take? Is there more to it? Yes! When I win the game I get added rotation-equity of .15 points*5 because I get to have the box against the weak player and I prevent the negative rotation-equity of .15 points I would have with Steve in the box against the weak player. So what is my total rotation-equity gain if I win? I lose 1 point plus have rotation-equity of negative .15 points for the next game when I pass. When I take and lose, I lose 2 points and have rotation-equity of negative .15 points the next game. When I take and win, I win 2 points and have positive rotation-equity of .75 points for the next game. In summarizing: passing I have negative equity of 1.15 points; taking and losing I have negative equity of 2.15 points ; winning I have positive equity of 2.75 points. So I risk 1 extra point to gain 3.9 extra points when I take and win. My take point, including cube leverage is 1/4.9 or 20.4%, so do I have a take? It looks like the answer is no, but have we considered everything? There is additional rotation-equity in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th players on the crew that the box will face if he keeps winning. It is additional positive equity if I win the box and additional negative equity if I lose the box to Steve. If the cumulative added rotation-equity of the other players is .5 points, I am now getting 1 to 4.4 odds and my take point, including cube leverage, drops to 18.5%.
Every chouette is different and the composition of each will determine the take points for the best players, but I would guess that the take point in a non-consulting chouette is generally around 18 to 23%, including cube ownership, for the best player.
It is good to get in the practice of calculating the approximate rotation-equity before doubling and before deciding to take or not. Double strong players out(late)and take deep when gaining or retaining the box has value.
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