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Rollout + Commentary

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 16 May 2007, at 5:25 a.m.

In Response To: Ballard v. Sylvester (Stick)

Kit says: Sylvester finally gets something going. He unstacks two of his heaps, makes a point, and sends Ballard to the bar. True, he leaves the blot, but this is not so serious. Ballard needs ones and fours to enter, so he doesn't have that all that many hitting numbers, and the hit is not devastating anyway. Sylvester could play completely safe for this roll with 16/6, but this leaves a very awkward position from which he would probably be forced to leave multiple shots. The gains from making the two point and starting to develop his position far outweigh the dangers.

Stick notes: Both bots get this wrong on their normal 2/3 ply settings by playing 16/6. Initially when I looked at it I thought 16/6 was a very reasonable option but upon further review, realizing that unless I luckbox out of it by rolling perfecta after perfecta, it's best to take the risk now, get rid of some of the stackage and maybe some of Nack's coverage. Since we can't safely play behind Kit since he has two checkers camping out on the 23 & 24 pts, 16/6 is out.

The score (after 1 game) is: Nack 1, Joe 0 (match to 19 points)

Move number 16: Joe to play 46

Nack	167
Joe	136
Position ID: zGZiwCjg58EjAA Match ID: cAl6AhAAAAAA

• Joe moves 8/2* 6/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	8/2* 6/2	+0.0598
			0.5205 0.1379 0.0058 - 0.4795 0.1380 0.0041 +0.0421 +0.0598 0.0023 0.0024 0.0004 - 0.0023 0.0023 0.0004 0.0059 0.0147
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1063435414 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	16/6	+0.0289 ( -0.0309)
			0.5152 0.1116 0.0038 - 0.4848 0.1431 0.0037 -0.0020 +0.0289 0.0025 0.0021 0.0004 - 0.0025 0.0024 0.0004 0.0062 0.0151
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1063435414 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Ballard v. Sylvester
  Stick -- Monday, 14 May 2007, at 12:07 a.m.
  • Re: Ballard v. Sylvester
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 14 May 2007, at 3:07 a.m.
  • Re: Ballard v. Sylvester
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 14 May 2007, at 5:27 p.m.
  • Re: Ballard v. Sylvester
    Ian Shaw -- Tuesday, 15 May 2007, at 11:40 a.m.
  • Re: Ballard v. Sylvester
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 15 May 2007, at 2:25 p.m.
  • Rollout + Commentary
    Stick -- Wednesday, 16 May 2007, at 5:25 a.m.