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Las Vegas #1

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 6 November 2009, at 5:52 p.m.

In Response To: Las Vegas #1 (Jason Lee)

One of those tight doubling windows: 87% < W < 91%.

White hits next turn when Blue fails to cover (1 - 25/36) and White rolls a deuce (11/36) which is about 9%. I think White is still a dog to win the game, but not a very deep one -- call this sequence 4% wins.

There are repeaters. Blue fails to cover; White fails to roll a 2; Blue fails to cover again; White hits. (11/36)*(25/36)*(9/36?)*11/36. That's less than 1% just to hit and then White must hit, so maybe 0.33%. Likely in the noise for this calc.

So to finish the problem we need to know how often White wins after a closeout. 5% or more makes it a take and more than 9% makes it a (technical) ND. I wish I remembered the ref. pos.'s for these (when White's board is closed -- 6%?).

Looks like a close take (2nd choice -- close pass).

R+T.

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