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Hickey vs. Fetterlein, Second Round (I think), Position 1

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 10 November 2009, at 10:34 p.m.

In Response To: Hickey vs. Fetterlein, Second Round (I think), Position 1 (Bill Riles)

25% takepoint. Let's start counting White wins:

White fails to bear off in one roll (34/36) X Green rolls doublets (6/36) = 17/108 ~ (12/13)*17% ~15.6%.

White fails to bear off two checkers (7/36) X Green fails to roll doublets (30/36) X Green fails to roll doublets (30/36) ~14%*0.7 ~10%.

So Green has a take. (Green has more winning scenarios.)

Could it not be a double? White loses the market with {52 or higher 5x, 62 or higher 6x, 33, 44} followed by Green's miss. That's 40+% of the time. White will be glad s/he didn't double after White's 25% wins mentioned above plus after rolling 2-1 (followed by Green's non-doublet) or another 4% or so. (Remainder of the time White will be doubling next turn anyway.) Thus 30% of the time Green is glad he kept the cube at 2.

More "glad I dids" than "wish I hadn'ts".

R+T.

Messages In This Thread

• Hickey vs. Fetterlein, Second Round (I think), Position 1
  Bill Riles -- Monday, 9 November 2009, at 10:39 p.m.
  • Hickey vs. Fetterlein, Second Round (I think), Position 1
    Frank_N_Stein -- Monday, 9 November 2009, at 10:56 p.m.
  • Hickey vs. Fetterlein, Second Round (I think), Position 1
    Joe Russell -- Tuesday, 10 November 2009, at 12:41 a.m.
  • Hickey vs. Fetterlein, Second Round (I think), Position 1
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 10 November 2009, at 10:34 p.m.
  • Hickey vs. Fetterlein, Second Round (I think), Position 1
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 10 November 2009, at 10:51 p.m.
  • Hickey vs. Fetterlein, Position 1 OTB +Rollout
    joolesf -- Wednesday, 11 November 2009, at 12:09 a.m.
    • GNU 7 ply eval w/new MET
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 11 November 2009, at 4:23 a.m.