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Bearing in against contact

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 12 November 2009, at 5:33 p.m.

In Response To: Bearing in against contact (Timothy Chow)

I don't ever remember a $-game situation like this where it wasn't right to make the point. (Maybe this is the first.)

For starters I rule out 6/2. It's certainly safe this roll and probably the next, but opp can enter and win the race so safety isn't everything.

Let's count shots for the alternatives:

8/4 -- gets hit immediately with 2/36 = 5.6% of the time.

5(2) -- will leave a direct shot next turn with 6-6, 6-5, 6-4, 6-3, 5-5. (There are some indirects but first things first.) (8/36)*(11/36) = 88/1296, which is about 88/1300. 7*13 = 91 (and 13 is 1% of 1300) so this is about 6.8% 'immediate' shots.

If you play 8/4 and White rolls 5-5, with White owning the cube Blue looks to be <50% to win. That's 50%*(1/36) or 1.4%. Now it's very close on the immediate directs.

After 5(2), Blue's 5-4 gives White the immediate 5.6% flyshots. That's another 5.6%/18 = 0.3%. Still razor close.

There should be more gammon wins (even though there aren't many) from closing the 5-point. Another issue is that getting hit isn't instant death since Blue can roll an ace. (White does get some hit+covers on the direct shots when 5(2) fails -- not the case after 8/4.)

Bottom line is that at this level of analysis I'm not finding much edge. As usual I'll shun QF and go with intuition.

5(2).

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