BGonline.org Forums

Equity question

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Tuesday, 24 November 2009, at 4:38 p.m.

In Response To: Equity question (Tad Bright)

Gotta make many assumptions here. First, the tournament structure. I'll assume

• 32-player single elimination
• entry fee $100
• payout $1600/$800/$400/$400

Then, we have to model the fact that advanced rounds tend to bring more difficult opponents. We could make a very informed guess if we could extract Elo-style ratings from the data you gave us, but I'm afraid you gave us to little to go by (for starters, you could improve on the information by telling us how many events players in the respective groups attended on average), and anyway I'm lazy now and more inclined to simply assume that players in every group always lose 3% MWC from one round to the next.

Then I get the following results:

• the 65% group averages 68.6% MWC in the first round, and their net equity is $156
• the 60% group averages 63.2% MWC in the first round, and their net equity is $83
• the 50% group averages 52.5% MWC in the first round, and their net equity is -$14
• the 40% group averages 41.8% MWC in the first round, and their net equity is -$65
• the 30% group averages 31.2% MWC in the first round, and their net equity is -$88
• the 25% group averages 26.0% MWC in the first round, and their net equity is -$94

Messages In This Thread

• Equity question
  Tad Bright -- Tuesday, 24 November 2009, at 9:36 a.m.
  • Equity question
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 24 November 2009, at 11:42 a.m.
  • Equity question
    Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 24 November 2009, at 4:38 p.m.