[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Statistics

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 18 May 2007, at 2:42 p.m.

In Response To: Re: ROLLOUT -- Not so fast (Stick)

In Stick's 324-trial rollout,

MoveEquitySDWith 68.3% probability, the true equity is between With 95.4% probability, the true equity is between
24/18 13/80.11190.02090.0910 and 0.13280.0701 and 0.1537
24/130.10320.01810.0851 and 0.12130.0670 and 0.1394

The difference between the plays after 324 trials is 0.0087. The 95% confidence interval for this difference is about 0.0087 +/- 0.0542.

Please please please, don't bother making any assumptions at all from such uncertain data.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.