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Fast Rollouts

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Sunday, 6 December 2009, at 4:41 p.m.

In Response To: Fast Rollouts (Daniel Murphy)

I don't understand any of this, but let me tell you what it means.

Variance is the likelihood that the current result differs from the result of an infinitely long rollout of the position. If the bot does not understand the position, the infinitely long rollout will produce an equity that has zero variance, but is just plain wrong. Shorter rollouts will have more variance and still be wrong but that doesn't mean the variance is underestimated; the result is just converging with increasing confidence to a wrong number.

There is a fundamental difference between low variance and correctness.

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