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LA Masters Cube #4 a simple bearoff showing that tourney BG can be a math test

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 8 December 2009, at 5:41 p.m.

In Response To: LA Masters Cube #4 a simple bearoff showing that tourney BG can be a math test (neilkaz)

Assume equal players.

Pass gives you 24% MWC.

If you take, there are three scenarios:

1) Opp rolls doublets and you lose immediately, giving you 9% MWC.

2) Opp fails to roll doublets; now you recube (you have 30% and the window opens at 9/(9+35) which is close to 20%), and

a) you bear off (11/36 = 30.5%) to win the match, or

b) you don't bear off and lose the match.

So, taking gives you (1/6)*9% + (5/6)*30.5% which looks like about 26.5% MWC. Thus between equal players you are better off taking. I don't think it requires a lot of skill difference to turn this the other way. I don't know Dorn (although I have heard of him) so I'll let you decide that.

BTW, it may be worth looking at the case where (during the match) you erroneously assume you always get in a recube. Then you win the match (30/36)*(11/36) or 25% of the time. (25.5% to three sigfig) Closer but you will still conclude that it's a take, using my rounded MET values.

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